NOAA: El Niño Likely to Bring Warmer-Than-Average Winter to South Dakota

Northeast Radio SD News – Watertown, SD - The National Weather Service says the Northern Plains should prepare for a warmer‑than‑average winter, as strong El Niño conditions are expected to influence temperatures and precipitation patterns across the United States from December 2026 through February 2027.

In a seasonal outlook released Thursday, NOAA said El Niño will drive a northward shift in milder air, making above‑average temperatures likely across the Dakotas, Minnesota and much of the northern tier of the country. The agency’s climate models show a consistent warm signal for the region, continuing a trend seen during past strong El Niño winters.

While temperature projections are clear, NOAA says the precipitation outlook for the Northern Plains is far less certain. The region has “equal chances” of below‑average, near‑average, or above‑average precipitation — meaning no strong indication of how much rain or snow may fall this winter.

Drought conditions that have persisted across large portions of the Northern Plains are expected to remain “relatively unchanged” through the winter months. NOAA’s outlook shows improvement in drought‑stricken areas of the Southwest, Southern Great Plains and parts of the East Coast, but not in the northern Rockies or the Dakotas.

National Weather Service officials urge residents, emergency managers an, and local agencies to begin preparing for winter hazards now. South Dakota’s Winter Preparedness Day is scheduled for Oct. 28, and Minnesota’s Winter Weather Preparedness Week will run Nov. 16–20.

The Weather Service is asking communities to help promote winter safety messaging, including guidance on travel preparedness, home heating safety, and emergency planning. Additional resources are available at weather.gov/wrn/winter and weather.gov/safety/winter.

NOAA’s full national outlook, including temperature and precipitation maps, is available at noaa.gov.